The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama with his largest lead ever in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Obama now attracts 51% of the vote while Clinton earns 41% (see recent daily results). Obama leads 61% to 30% among Men including a thirteen-point advantage among White Men. Obama leads 84% to 12% among African-American voters while Clinton holds a seven-point edge among White voters. Among Democrats, Obama leads by four. He holds a much healthier lead among unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a Democratic Primary.
Caution should always be used before reading too much into a single day’s results(see video commentary on long-term trends). However, this is only the second time that Obama has ever reached the 50% level of support and just the second time since the March 4 Primaries that his support has moved more than three percentage points in either direction from the 45% level.
As for Clinton, this is the lowest level of support she has earned since the contest for the nomination became a two-person race. It will take several more days to determine whether this signals a shift in the race or is merely statistical noise. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
New polling released today shows that Obama has opened a twenty-three percentage point lead in North Carolina. In Pennsylvania, Clinton has the lead but Obama is gaining ground. Rasmussen Markets data now give Obama a 85.3 % chance to win the Democratic nomination.
Looking ahead to the general election, John McCain currently leads Barack Obama 47% to 44% and Hillary Clinton 47% to 42% (see recent daily results). McCain is viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 42%. Obama’s reviews are 52% favorable and 45% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 47% favorable, 51% unfavorable (see recent daily results).
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 243 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). New data will be released over the weekend for Iowa, Alabama, and Tennessee. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are given a 59.2 % chance of winning the White House this year.
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Wednesday at 9:30 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.
Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.