The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday show John McCain leading Barack Obama 47% to 44%. He leads Hillary Clinton 47% to 42% (see recent daily results). Among unaffiliated voters, McCain leads Clinton by six points and Obama by one. Among men, McCain leads Clinton by twenty-one and Obama by eleven. Among women, Clinton leads McCain by eight and Obama leads by three. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
Among voters nationwide, McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 41%. Obama’s reviews are 52% favorable and 46% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 45% favorable, 52% unfavorable (see recent daily results).
Voters have stronger opinions about the Democratic candidates than McCain. Twenty-nine percent (29%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while another 29% have a Very Unfavorable view of him. For Clinton, the numbers are 19% Very Favorable and 34% Very Unfavorable. McCain earns Very Favorable ratings from 21% while 19% have a Very Unfavorable opinion of him.
Most Americans consider both Clinton and Obama to be politically liberal. McCain is seen as politically moderate by 41% and conservative by an identical number.
New polling data released today shows both Democrats leading McCain in Maine. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 243 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). New data will be released over the weekend for Iowa, Alabama, and Tennessee.
As of Friday morning, Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are given a 59% chance of winning the White House in November (current prices: Democrats 59.2 %; Republicans 40.9 . Amidst all the campaigning of Election 2008, the number of people considering themselves to be Democrats has soared to new highs.
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama now attracts 48% of the vote while Clinton earns 42% (see recent daily results). In a video analysis, Scott Rasmussen cautions against reading too much into the day-to-day blips of the tracking poll and looks at the longer trend highlighted during the month of March. While Clinton has remained competitive in national polling, Rasmussen Markets data now give Obama a 84.5 % chance to win the Democratic nomination
In Pennsylvania, Clinton has the lead but Obama is gaining ground. Two commentaries today look at the Democrats and delegates. Alan I. Abramowitz looks at the Superdelegate Math and concludes that it does not favor Hillary Clinton. Wesley Little shows that if the Democrats used a winner-take-all system, Obama would be trailing in the delegate count.
Other new election polling shows that the Washington Governor’s race remains very close while Democrats retain big leads in the New Jersey and Virginia Senate races. While Clinton and Obama campaign in Pennsylvania, McCain took time out to trade jokes with David Letterman. At the same time, Joe Lieberman said that Barack Obama does not bring much credibility to the debate on Iraq.
All of the candidates must deal with a struggling economy. The Discover U.S. Spending Monitor reached a new low in March as consumers grew even more concerned about the economy and their personal finances in the face of rising monthly expenses. Half of all Americans say that rising gas prices have had a big impact on their lifestyle. The Discover Small Business Watch shows that half of all small business owners say that economic conditions for their business will get worse over the coming six months and the Rasmussen Employment Index shows that worker confidence has fallen to the lowest level of the past five years.
Rasmussen Markets data now give Obama a 84.3 % chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at 14.9 %. Market data also suggests that Obama has a 50.5 % chance to become the next President. Expectations for McCain to become President are at 39.6 % while Clinton’s prospects are at 9.9c%. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Wednesday at 9:30 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.
Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.