Two commentaries today look at the Democrats and delegates. Alan I. Abramowitz looks at the Superdelegate Math and concludes that it does not favor Hillary Clinton. Wesley Little shows that if the Democrats used a winner-take-all system, Obama would be trailing in the delegate count.
Looking ahead to the General Election, John McCain leading Barack Obama 48% to 41%. He leads Hillary Clinton 47% to 42% (see recent daily results). New survey data released today, shows that most Americans consider both Clinton and Obama to be politically liberal. McCain is seen as politically moderate by 41% and conservative by an identical number.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 243 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results).
Among voters nationwide, McCain is now viewed favorably by 57% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 40%. Obama’s reviews are 50% favorable and 48% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 46% favorable, 52% unfavorable (see recent daily results).
Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 Eastern Time.
In Pennsylvania, Clinton has the lead but Obama is gaining ground. Other new election polling shows that the Washington Governor’s race remains very close while Democrats retain big leads in the New Jersey and Virginia Senate races. While Clinton and Obama campaign in Pennsylvania, McCain took time out to trade jokes with David Letterman. At the same time, Joe Lieberman said that Barack Obama does not bring much credibility to the debate on Iraq.
All of the candidates must deal with a struggling economy. The Discover U.S. Spending Monitor reached a new low in March as consumers grew even more concerned about the economy and their personal finances in the face of rising monthly expenses. Half of all Americans say that rising gas prices have had a big impact on their lifestyle. The Discover Small Business Watch shows that half of all small business owners say that economic conditions for their business will get worse over the coming six months and the Rasmussen Employment Index shows that worker confidence has fallen to the lowest level of the past five years.
On a separate topic, a plurality of Democrats believe that former President Bill Clinton’s efforts during the campaign have hurt his reputation.
Rasmussen Markets data now give Obama a 83.3% chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at 14.0%. Market data also suggests that Obama has a 50.6c % chance to become the next President. Expectations for McCain to become President are at 39.5% while Clinton’s prospects are at 9.3 %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders “buy and sell” candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Wednesday at 9:30 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.
Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.