The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 2/4/08

April 2, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday continues to show a tight race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Hillary Clinton attracts 45% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 44% (see recent daily results). The two candidates have been essentially even nationally for the past month. The next big contest is set for April 22 in Pennsylvania where Clinton has the lead but Obama is gaining ground. An Associated Press Video shows Clinton and Obama campaigning across the Keystone State.

Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 Eastern Time.

Looking ahead to the General Election, John McCain leading Barack Obama 47% to 41%. He leads Hillary Clinton 46% to 42% (see recent daily results). The survey shows that 19% of Democratic Primary voters will vote for McCain over Clinton. Twenty-two percent (22%) will vote for McCain over Obama. While Clinton and Obama campaign in Pennsylvania, McCain took time out to trade jokes with David Letterman. At the same time, Joe Lieberman said that Barack Obama does not bring much credibility to the debate on Iraq.

Among voters nationwide, McCain is now viewed favorably by 57% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 41%. Obama’s reviews are 49% favorable and 49% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 44% favorable, 53% unfavorable (see recent daily results).

All of the candidates must deal with a struggling economy. The Discover U.S. Spending Monitor reached a new low in March as consumers grew even more concerned about the economy and their personal finances in the face of rising monthly expenses. Half of all Americans say that rising gas prices have had a big impact on their lifestyle. The Discover Small Business Watch shows that half of all small business owners say that economic conditions for their business will get worse over the coming six months and the Rasmussen Employment Index shows that worker confidence has fallen to the lowest level of the past five years.

On a separate topic, a plurality of Democrats believe that former President Bill Clinton’s efforts during the campaign have hurt his reputation.

Other new election polling shows that the Washington Governor’s race remains very close while Democrats retain big leads in the New Jersey and Virginia Senate races.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 243 to 240. Recent state polling shows potentially competitive races in Washington, New Jersey, Michigan, and Wisconsin. (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

Rasmussen Markets data now give Obama a 82.0% chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at 15.7 %. Market data also suggests that Obama has a 51.2 % chance to become the next President. Expectations for McCain to become President are at 40.3 % while Clinton’s prospects are at 13.0 %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders “buy and sell” candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Wednesday at 9:30 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.

Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.