Daily Presidential Tracking Poll – 1/4/08 – Rasmussens Reports

April 1, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday continues to show a tight race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Barack Obama attracts 46% of the vote while Hillary Clinton earns 45% (see recent daily results). However, Obama is gaining ground in the critical state of Pennsylvania where he has cut Hillary Clinton’s lead to five percentage points in the upcoming Primary.

Looking ahead to the General Election, John McCain leading Barack Obama 47% to 41%. He leads Hillary Clinton 48% to 41% (see recent daily results). Among voters nationwide, McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 41%. Obama’s reviews are 47% favorable and 50% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 43% favorable, 55% unfavorable (see recent daily results).

Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 Eastern Time.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race is a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 243 to 240. Recent state polling shows potentially competitive races in Washington, New Jersey, Michigan, and Wisconsin. (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

Rasmussen Markets data now give Obama a 82.9% chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at 15.4 %. Market data also suggests that Obama has a 47.8 % chance to become the next President. Expectations for McCain to become President are at 40.2 contract% while Clinton’s prospects are at 11.0 %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders “buy and sell” candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Wednesday at 9:30 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.

Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.