The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain leading Barack Obama 47% to 42%. He leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 40% (see recent daily results). Among unaffiliated voters, McCain is essentially even with Obama while holding a wide lead over Clinton. When matched against McCain, Clinton earns a bit more support than Obama from Democrats. Obama leads McCain among voters under 40 while McCain has the edge among those 40 and above. McCain leads Clinton among all age groups.
New state polling has been released today showing potentially competitive races in Washington, New Jersey, and Michigan. Over the weekend, new state polls were released for Wisconsin and Virginia (see summary of recent state-by-state results).
Among all voters nationwide, McCain is now viewed favorably by 53% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 44%. Obama’s reviews are 49% favorable and 49% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 43% favorable, 55% unfavorable (see recent daily results). Among unaffiliated voters, Obama is viewed favorably by 56%, McCain by 52%, and Clinton by 35%.
In the Electoral College, Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 243 to 240. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator showed two changes over the weekend–Wisconsin moving from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic and New Hampshire moving from Leans Democratic to Toss-Up.
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Obama 46% Clinton 43% (see recent daily results). Clinton leads by thirteen points among White voters including a twenty-seven point advantage among White Women. Obama leads among White Men, has an overwhelming advantage among African-Americans, and a solid lead among voters under 50. Among Democrats, Clinton leads by seven. Among unaffiliated voters likely to participate in a Democratic Primary, Obama leads by a two-to-one margin.
While the two Democrats continue their battle for the nomination, John McCain has released his first general election campaign commercial. .
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Tuesday at 9:30 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.
Rasmussen Markets data now give Obama a 79.7 % chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at 17.7 %. Market data also suggests that Obama has a 47.8 % chance to become the next President. Expectations for McCain to become President are at 40.2 % while Clinton’s prospects are at 13.1 %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders “buy and sell” candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.
Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.