30/03/08 – Daily Presidential Tracking Poll – The Rasmussen Reports

March 30, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows John McCain leading Barack Obama 47% to 44%. He leads Hillary Clinton 50% to 40% (see recent daily results). See John McCain video.In the Electoral College, Democrats leading in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 243 to 240. This weekend’s changes in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator show Wisconsin moving from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic while New Hampshire moved from Leans Democratic to Toss-Up.In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Obama 47% Clinton 42% (see recent daily results). Clinton leads by ten among White voters. This includes a twenty-three point advantage among White Women. Obama leads among White Men, has an overwhelming advantage among African-Americans, and a solid lead among voters under 50.Among all voters nationwide, McCain is now viewed favorably by 54% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 44%. Obama’s reviews are 49% favorable and 48% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 42% favorable, 56% unfavorable (see recent daily results).

New polling released today for Wisconsin hows McCain essentially even with Obama while he holds a solid lead over Clinton. Data release yesterday from Virginia shows McCain with a solid lead over both Democrats (see summary of state-by-state results).

Some pundits have suggested Al Gore as a compromise nominee to end the Obama-Clinton struggle. However, when Democratic Primary Voters are asked about a three-way race, the former Vice President attracted less support than both Obama and Clinton.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Monday at 11:00 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.

Rasmussen Markets data now give Obama a 80.3c % chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at 18.5 %. Market data also suggests that Obama has a 47.5% chance to become the next President. Expectations for McCain to become President are at 39.5 % while Clinton’s prospects are at 11.6c%. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders “buy and sell” candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

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March 30, 2008

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