The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/31/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that John McCain attracting 46% of the vote nationwide while Barack Obama earns 43%. This marks the fifth straight day that McCain has enjoyed at least a three-point advantage over Obama (see recent daily results). Occasionally, over the past few months, one candidate or the other has opened what appears to be a modest lead for several days. But, to this point in time, neither has been able to hold a sustained lead. Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Americans have heard about Scott McClellan’s new book. A plurality doesn’t know whether the former White House Press Secretary is telling the truth.

McCain is viewed favorably by 52% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 46%. Those figures include 19% with a Very Favorable opinion of the Republican hopeful and 23% with a Very Unfavorable opinion.

Obama’s numbers are 45% favorable and 53% unfavorable (see recent daily ratings). Those figures represent Obama’s lowest ratings of the year. His favorability ratings peaked at 56% in mid-February. Twenty-five percent (25%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 37% have a Very Unfavorable view.

Voters see McCain as the candidate most likely to reach across party lines and work effectively with both Republicans and Democrats.

On the question of voter trust, McCain retains a slight edge over Obama when it comes to the economy and the War in Iraq. The GOP candidate holds a wide edge on National Security issues. These figures have changed little over the past month. However, generically, Democrats tend to be trusted more than Republicans on a whole range of key issues before the nation.

FiveThirtyEight.com has taken the time to review polling data and election results from the last eight years and rank more than 30 of the nation’s polling firms and organizations. While there is much more to polling than being closest to the mark with your final numbers, the results are interesting. Rasmussen Reports is ranked number three on the list.

Polling released Thursday showed John McCain leading in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi, incumbent Republican Senator Roger Wicker is in a competitive race. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 61.5% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 48% to 43% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). Rasmussen Reports will conclude our tracking of this race when the Primary and Caucus season ends on Tuesday. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.3% chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 47%.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/30/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that John McCain attracting 46% of the vote nationwide while Barack Obama earns 43%. McCain has been “ahead” by at least two percentage points on six of the last seven days (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. Occasionally, over the past few months, one candidate or the other has opened what appears to be a modest lead for several days. But, to this point in time, neither has been able to hold a sustained lead.

On the question of voter trust, McCain retains a slight edge over Obama when it comes to the economy and the War in Iraq. The GOP candidate holds a wide edge on National Security issues. These figures have changed little over the past month. However, generically, Democrats tend to be trusted more than Republicans on a whole range of key issues before the nation.

McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 47%. Obama’s numbers are 46% favorable and 52% unfavorable (see recent daily ratings). Voters see McCain as the candidate most likely to reach across party lines and work effectively with both Republicans and Democrats. Still, a commentary by Dr. Alan I. Abramowitz suggests that a victory by John McCain would be “an upset of unprecedented magnitude.” Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 62.9 % chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

FiveThirtyEight.com has taken the time to review polling data and election results from the last eight years and rank more than 30 of the nation’s polling firms and organizations. While there is much more to polling than being closest to the mark with your final numbers, the results are interesting. Rasmussen Reports is ranked number three on the list.

Polling released yesterday showed John McCain leading in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi, incumbent Republican Senator Roger Wicker is in a competitive race. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

McCain leads 58% to 33% among Evangelical Christians and by six points among other Protestant voters. Consistent with results from many recent state polls, McCain( McCain News ) does better among those who attend Church or other religious services on a regular basis. Obama( Obama News ) is stronger among those who rarely or never attend services (see other recent demographic notes).

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 48% to 43% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.6% chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 47%.

Rhodes Cook looks at the Outsized Role of Caucuses in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Joe Conason looks at the troubled Democratic nominating process and concludes “there is plenty of blame to be shared among all the participants, from Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and their surrogates to Howard Dean and the party apparatus in Washington.”

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/27/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that John McCain attracting 47% of the vote nationwide while Barack Obama earns 44%. McCain has been “ahead” by at least two percentage points on four of the last six days. On the other two days during that stretch, the candidates were tied. (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. Twenty-four percent (24%) of White Democrats nationwide currently say they’ll vote for the Republican candidate, John McCain.

New Senate polling data released today shows veteran Republican Senator Mitch McConnell trailing in Kentucky. In Minnesota, another Republican Senator, Norm Coleman, is narrowly ahead. A column by Dick Morris anticipates a possible “GOP Senate Massacre” in November.

Other polling shows that most Americans say that the economic stimulus package has had no impact. Most also say that the best thing the government can do for the economy is get out of the way. Seventy-one percent (71%) say it’s likely that gas prices will reach $5 a gallon this summer.

McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s numbers are 48% favorable and 49% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 27% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 34%. For McCain, the numbers are 18% Very Favorable and 23% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily ratings). ( McCain news )

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.6% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 49% to 43% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.5% chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 48%. ( Obama News )

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/26/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that John McCain and Barack Obama are tied again at 45%. Over the past seven days, the two candidates have been tied or just a single percentage point apart three times. On the other four days, McCain( McCain News ) has had an advantage of two points or more (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s numbers are 48% favorable and 49% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 28% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 34%. For McCain, the numbers are 18% Very Favorable and 23% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily ratings).

This Memorial Day, 37% of Americans have friends or relatives serving in Iraq. Seventy-five percent (75%) have a favorable opinion of the U.S. military.

New polling from Kentucky shows John McCain safely ahead in the state. In Minnesota, Obama retains a double digit lead. The Democrat has a smaller advantage in both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.2c % chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

Democrats lead by eight on the Generic Congressional Ballot and have an even bigger advantage in terms of partisan identification. A column by Dick Morris anticipates a possible “GOP Senate Massacre” in November.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 44% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.6 % chance of winning the nomination( Obama news ). Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 47%.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/25/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows, for the second straight day, John McCain attracting 46% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 44%. This is the fourth time in the last six days that McCain has had an advantage exceeding a single percentage point. Still, the two candidates have been tied or just a single percentage point apart for twelve of the last sixteen days (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

New polling from Minnesota was released today showing Obama retaining a double digit lead over McCain. Polling released Friday showed Obama with the advantage in both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. In both states, McCain had the edge a month ago (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.0 % chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s numbers are 47% favorable and 50% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 26% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 34%. For McCain, the numbers are 19% Very Favorable and 23% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily ratings).

Democrats lead by eight on the Generic Congressional Ballot and have an even bigger advantage in terms of partisan identification. A column by Dick Morris anticipates a possible “GOP Senate Massacre” in November.

In the race for the White House, McCain leads among those who closely follow traditional local media and among those who rarely or never rely upon local TV and newspapers. Obama lead among those whose use is in between.

Among those who watch local TV news every night or nearly every night, McCain leads 49% to 41%. Among those who read the local paper every day or nearly every day, McCain leads 48% to 42%. Among those who rarely or never turn on local TV news, McCain leads by six and he is up by twelve among those who rarely or never read a local newspaper. Obama news

Among those who occasionally watch local television news and those who watch a couple of times a week, Obama leads by five. Among those who occasionally read the local newspaper and those who read it a couple of times per week, Obama leads by four.

Part of this divergence undoubtedly results from the age difference in support for Obama and McCain. Obama leads among voters under 40 while McCain leads among older voters.

As Obama edges ever closer to formally wrapping up the Democratic Presidential nomination, the number of Democrats who want Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race has declined. A Rasmussen Reports video analysis notes that Obama is now entering the most perilous phase of his campaign . The manner in which he resolves the competition with Clinton could determine who moves into the White House next January.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 44% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.5% chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 47%.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/24/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows John McCain attracting 46% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 44%. This is the third time in the last five days that McCain has had an advantage exceeding a single percentage point. Still, the two candidates have been tied or just a single percentage point apart for twelve of the last fifteen days (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

Democrats lead by eight on the Generic Congressional Ballot and have an even bigger advantage in terms of partisan identification. A column by Dick Morris anticipates a possible “GOP Senate Massacre” in November.

In the race for the White House, McCain leads among those who closely follow traditional local media and among those who rarely or never rely upon local TV and newspapers. Obama lead among those whose use is in between.

Among those who watch local TV news every night or nearly every night, McCain leads 49% to 41%. Among those who read the local paper every day or nearly every day, McCain leads 48% to 42%. Among those who rarely or never turn on local TV news, McCain leads by six and he is up by twelve among those who rarely or never read a local newspaper. Obama news

Among those who occasionally watch local television news and those who watch a couple of times a week, Obama leads by five. Among those who occasionally read the local newspaper and those who read it a couple of times per week, Obama leads by four.

Part of this divergence undoubtedly results from the age difference in support for Obama and McCain. Obama leads among voters under 40 while McCain leads among older voters. Obama polls

Polling released yesterday showed Obama with the advantage in both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. In both states, McCain had the edge a month ago (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.0% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 45%. Obama’s numbers are 48% favorable and 49% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 27% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 33%. For McCain, the numbers are 19% Very Favorable and 23% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily ratings).

As Obama edges ever closer to formally wrapping up the Democratic Presidential nomination, the number of Democrats who want Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race has declined. A Rasmussen Reports video analysis notes that Obama is now entering the most perilous phase of his campaign . The manner in which he resolves the competition with Clinton could determine who moves into the White House next January.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 48% to 44% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.4% chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 47%. Obama videos

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/23/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows John McCain and Barack Obama tied with each man attracting 45% of the vote. On twelve of the last fourteen days, the two candidates have been tied or just a single percentage point apart (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

Polling released yesterday showed Obama with a double-digit lead in California and McCain holding a modest lead in Nevada. New state polls will be released at 10:30 this morning for Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.9 % chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s numbers are 49% favorable and 48% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 28% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 33%. For McCain, the numbers are 19% Very Favorable and 23% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily ratings).

As Obama edges ever closer to formally wrapping up the Democratic Presidential nomination, the number of Democrats who want Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race has declined. A Rasmussen Reports video analysis notes that Obama is now entering the most perilous phase of his campaign. The manner in which he resolves the competition with Clinton could determine who moves into the White House next January.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 43% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over two weeks, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.8% chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 45%.

A column by Dick Morris, drawing heavily upon Rasmussen Reports polling data, looks at the “GOP Senate Massacre of ’08.” He suggests the results could be worse for Republicans than “the worst of previous GOP years: 1958, 1964, 1974, 1986 and 2006.”

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/22/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows John McCain earning 46% of the vote while Barack Obama attracts 42%. This is the first time in nearly three weeks that either candidate has enjoyed a four-point advantage (see recent daily results).

McCain’s edge can be traced directly to the fact that just 66% of Democrats say they will vote for Obama at this time. Twenty-three percent (23%) of all Democrats say that if the election were held today, they’d vote for McCain. Another 11% would opt for “some other candidate” or remain undecided. McCain, who wrapped up the GOP nomination more than two months ago, attracts 79% of Republican votes and holds a modest five point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

It is likely that Obama’s numbers will improve when he is formally recognized as the Democratic nominee. How much they will improve depends upon how the end game is handled. How will the Michigan and Florida delegates be included at the Democratic Convention in August? How will Hillary Clinton exit the race? One key date is a week from Saturday, May 31, when the Democrats’ Rules and Bylaws Committee meets to try and resolve the Michigan/Florida issue.

Beyond that, of course, is the question of whether Hillary Clinton wants to run for Vice-President. Rasmussen Reports noted some time ago that if Clinton wants the number two slot on the ticket, Obama will have no choice but to accept her. In the end, regardless of the specifics, the key for Obama will be to make Clinton supporters believe that their candidate was treated fairly and with respect. If he can accomplish that goal, his support among Democrats will dramatically improve.

Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. New state polling will be released at noon Eastern today for Nevada and California (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

A column by Dick Morris today, drawing heavily upon Rasmussen Reports polling data, looks at the “GOP Senate Massacre of ’08.” He suggests the results could be worse for Republicans than “the worst of previous GOP years: 1958, 1964, 1974, 1986 and 2006.”

Froma Harrop suggests in her commentary today that the process of selecting the Democratic Presidential Nominee should be more democratic. Joe Conason takes a look at McCain and the lobbyists on his campaign team. Robert Novak says that John McCain’s “campaign has no intention of fighting this battle on Democratic turf. During the more than five months ahead, Republicans will explore the mindset of [Barack Obama], a young man who is a stranger to most Americans.”

Obama is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 48%( Obama news ). McCain’s numbers are 50% favorable and 46% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 29% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 33%. For McCain, the numbers are 19% Very Favorable and 23% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily ratings).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.5% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 42% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over a week ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 93.0% chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 45%.

If McCain is elected, 49% of voters believe victory in Iraq is likely. Fifty-nine percent (59%) say an Obama victory will lead to troops coming home during his first term in office.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/21/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows John McCain earning 45% of the vote while Barack Obama attracts 44%. This is the eleventh time in the last twelve days that the candidates have been within a single percentage point of each other. McCain has held a statistically insignificant lead on four of the last five days. Prior to that, it was Obama with an equally insignificant lead for ten straight days (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

New polling released today shows that Obama has opened a modest lead over McCain in Colorado. Democrats also have a reason to smile about new polling on that state’s Senate race. At 10:30 a.m. Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data from Florida. At noon Eastern, national polling will be released on the importance of Supreme Court appointments in Election 2008.

Obama is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 48%. McCain’s numbers are 49% favorable and 47% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 28% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 33%. For McCain, the numbers are 18% Very Favorable and 22% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily ratings).

Rasmussen Reports has recently released new polls from Ohio, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Alaska (see summary of recent state-by-state results). The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 61.9% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

At least ten Republican Senate seats could be at risk during Election 2008 including Alaska, North Carolina, Oregon, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia, and Texas. Republican incumbents in Maine and Kansas are a bit better off than many of their colleagues and polling indicates that the Nebraska seat currently held by Chuck Hagel may also be in fairly good shape for the GOP.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 42% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over a week ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 93.1 % chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 46%.

Just 13% say that Congress is doing a good or excellent job. Other tracking data shows that most Americans prefer lower taxes and fewer government programs.

If McCain is elected, 49% of voters believe victory in Iraq is likely. Fifty-nine percent (59%) say an Obama victory will lead to troops coming home during his first term in office.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/20/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows John McCain earning 46% of the vote while Barack Obama attracts 43%. This is the first time in nearly two weeks that the candidates have been separated by more than a single percentage point (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s numbers are 49% favorable and 49% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 27% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 35%. For McCain, the numbers are 19% Very Favorable and 22% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily ratings).

Just 13% say that Congress is doing a good or excellent job. Other tracking data shows that most Americans prefer lower taxes and fewer government programs.

New polling data released today shows that Democrats and Republicans have fundamentally different views about the economy—Democrats are far more pessimistic than Republicans. Polling released yesterday shows that, if McCain is elected, 49% believe victory in Iraq is likely. Fifty-nine percent (59%) say an Obama victory will lead to troops coming home during his first term in office.

Rasmussen Reports has recently released new polls from Ohio, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Alaska (see summary of recent state-by-state results). The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.0% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

Other weekend polling showed the Republican Senate candidate in Nebraska in fairly good shape as the general election campaign begins. However, that is not the case in Alaska where Republican Senator Ted Stevens trails by two percentage points in his bid for re-election. Earlier polls show that at least nine other Republican Senate seats could be in play during Election 2008 including North Carolina, Oregon, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia, and Texas. Republican incumbents in Maine and Kansas are a bit better off than many of their colleagues. Both Susan Collins and Pat Roberts are modestly over the 50% level of support in their re-election bids.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 44% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over a week ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 46%. The candidates are each favored to win one primary on Tuesday–Clinton in Kentucky and Obama in Oregon. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 92.6% chance of winning the nomination.

Rasmussen Reports regularly asks voters to identify themselves ideologically on both fiscal and social issues. The significance of this distinction is highlighted by the fact that just 11% of voters currently consider themselves fiscally liberal while 29% say they are liberal when it comes to social issues. An overview of how the nation’s voters break down along these lines was presented last fall.

Not surprisingly, among voters who are both fiscally and socially liberal, Obama leads McCain 84% to 6%. Among those who are conservative on both scales, McCain leads Obama 80% to 9%. As for those who consider themselves moderate on both fiscal policy and social issues, Obama is favored 54% to 36%.

When the views of those who are fiscally moderate but socially liberal are measured, Obama comes out on top, 72% to 21%. As for those who are fiscally conservative but socially moderate, McCain leads 70% to 20%. The categories of voters mentioned in these two paragraphs cover 67% of the nation’s voters.

Those with libertarian views—fiscally conservative and socially liberal—currently represent 5% of the voting public. They are evenly divided between McCain and Obama. See notes on other demographic comparisons. This is consistent with earlier polling which found an independent campaign by Ron Paul would draw slightly more support from Democrats than from Republicans. However, the overall impact of potential third-party activity this year may be a slight benefit for Obama over McCain.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.