Obama is Winning Every Metric – Don’t Believe the Hype

Is Obama really losing by the Electoral College metric? If you look at the 16 most competitive contests of 2004, he actually has won MORE delegates than Hillary Clinton. What’s more, her margin of victory was 6.7%, and his was 20.7% on average.

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Arizona superdelegate pledges vote for Obama!

Sen. Barack Obama picked up another superdelegate today at the Arizona Democratic Party’s state convention. Charlene Fernandez, chairwoman of the Yuma Democratic Party, was chosen the state party’s first vice chairwoman, a position that carries with it superdelegate status.

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The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/27/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows John McCain attracting 46% of the vote while Barack Obama also earns 46%. In a match-up with Hillary Clinton, it’s McCain 47%, Clinton 45%. Among White voters, McCain leads Obama by twelve and Clinton by eleven. Among African-American voters, Obama dominates but Clinton attracts just 59% support. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily results).

These results come on a day when consumer confidence in the economy has fallen to another record low. Data from the Rasmussen Consumer Index shows that 77% of Americans believe the economy is getting worse and that most—55%–say their own personal finances are getting worse.

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s ratings are 50% favorable and 47% unfavorable. For Clinton, the reviews are 47% favorable, 51% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings). , McCain is generally trusted more than the Democratic candidates on several key issues.

New polling has recently been released from Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts. With these latest results included, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes. The GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 59.8% chance of winning in November

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Obama 48%, Clinton 42% (see recent Democratic Nomination results). These results are based upon data from a four-day tracking poll. Today’s update is the first based entirely upon interviews conducted following the Pennsylvania Primary. On the morning of that Primary, Obama led Clinton 49% to 41%, essentially the same as today’s results.

For each of the past six daily updates, Obama’s support has stayed between 47% and 49% while Clinton’s support has ranged from 41% to 43%. Clinton’s support has been within three percentage points of 43% every single day since March 9. Obama’s support has been within three percentage points of 48% every day since April 2. During March, Obama’s support generally stayed within three percentage points of 46% support.

These results and other data suggest that there is no “momentum” in this Primary Season. Typically, momentum results as voters learn more about a candidate who is doing well. This cycle, Hillary Clinton began the campaign as one of the best known people in the world. Democrats uneasy with her quickly settled on Obama as the chief challenger who has now become the frontrunner. As the candidates have become known, each has developed a solid core of supportive constituencies. For Obama, these included African-Americans, younger voters, more liberal Democrats, and upper-income voters. For Clinton, strength comes from White Women, older voters, more moderate Democrats, and lower-to-middle-income workers.

Six weeks of campaigning in Pennsylvania, and still uncounted millions of dollars in campaign spending, was unable to significantly move any of the demographic support groups from one candidate to the other. At this point, it is hard to imagine anything that will cause the underlying patterns of support to change. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 81.0% chance of winning the Democratic nomination..

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/26/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows John McCain attracting 47% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 45%. In a match-up with Hillary Clinton, the results are the same–McCain 47%, Clinton 45%. In both match-ups, McCain leads among men while the Democratic candidate leads among women. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily results).

New state polling from Pennsylvania shows that both Democrats lost ground to John McCain during the final two weeks of the Keystone State campaign. McCain and Obama are essentially even while Clinton enjoys a modest lead over the GOP hopeful. Favorability ratings for both Democrats slipped in Pennsylvania over the past two weeks.

National polling data shows that while Democrats are generally trusted more than Republicans on key issues, McCain is generally trusted more than the current Democratic candidates.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Obama 47%, Clinton 43% (see recent Democratic Nomination results). These results are based upon data from a four-day tracking poll and include three nights of data since the Pennsylvania Primary. For each of the past five daily updates, Obama’s support has stayed between 47% and 49% while Clinton’s support has ranged from 41% to 43%. Clinton’s support has been within three percentage points of 43% every single day since March 9. Obama’s support has been withing three percentage points of 48% every day since April 2. During March, Obama’s support generally stayed within three percentage points of 46% support.

These results and other data suggest that there is no “momentum” in this Primary Season. Typically, momentum results as voters learn more about a candidate who is doing well. This cycle, Hillary Clinton began the campaign as one of the best known people in the world. Democrats uneasy with her quickly settled on Obama as the chief challenger who has now become the frontrunner. As the candidates have become known, each has developed a solid core of supportive constituencies. For Obama, these included African-Americans, younger voters, more liberal Democrats, and upper-income voters. For Clinton, strength comes from White Women, older voters, more moderate Democrats, and lower-to-middle-income workers.

Six weeks of campaigning in Pennsylvania, and still uncounted millions of dollars in campaign spending, was unable to significantly move any of the demographic support groups from one candidate to the other. At this point, it is hard to imagine anything that will cause the underlying patterns of support to change. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 80.7% chance of winning the Democratic nomination..

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s ratings are 50% favorable and 48% unfavorable. For Clinton, the reviews are 46% favorable, 52% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings). Just 41% of Clinton supporters have a favorable opinion of Obama while 50% of Obama supporters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.

New polling has recently been released from Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts. With these latest results included, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes. The GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 60.0% chance of winning in November

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/25/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain also earns 45%. In a match-up with Hillary Clinton, it’s McCain 47%, Clinton 45%. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily general election results). Scott Rasmussen suggests that a careful look at the tracking poll data shows potentially hidden support for whichever Democrat wins the nomination. Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 60.0 % chance of winning in November.

Later today, new state polling will be released from Pennsylvania. Also, polling data will be released showing whether voters trust McCain or Clinton more on key issues of Election 2008. Earlier this week, data was released showing that, on most key issues, voters trust Democrats more than Republicans. However, when candidate names are used rather than party labels, the results shift–McCain is trusted more than Obama on both the economy and the War in Iraq.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Obama 49%, Clinton 42% (see recent daily Democratic Nomination results). Those numbers are unchanged from the night before and, so far, there is absolutely no indication that Clinton’s victory in Pennsylvania has changed the overall dynamic of the race. These results are based upon a four-day rolling average and include two full nights of polling following the Pennsylvania Primary.

These results and other data suggest that there is no “momentum” in this Primary Season. Typically, momentum results as voters learn more about a candidate who is doing well. This cycle, Hillary Clinton began the campaign as one of the best known people in the world. Democrats uneasy with her quickly settled on Obama as the chief challenger who has now become the frontrunner. As the candidates have become known, each has developed a solid core of supportive constituencies. For Obama, these included African-Americans, younger voters, more liberal Democrats, and upper-income voters. For Clinton, strength comes from White Women, older voters, more moderate Democrats, and lower-to-middle income workers.

Six weeks of campaigning in Pennsylvania, and still uncounted millions of dollars in campaign spending, was unable to significantly move any of the demographic support groups from one candidate to the other. At this point, it is hard to imagine anything that will cause the underlying patterns of support to change. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 80.6% chance of winning the Democratic nomination..

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s ratings are 50% favorable and 48% unfavorable. For Clinton, the reviews are 46% favorable, 53% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings). Just 41% of Clinton supporters have a favorable opinion of Obama while 48% of Obama supporters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.

In the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator, Democrats now lead in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). New state polling has just been released for Minnesota and Nevada.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.

29 North Carolina Legislators Endorse Barack Obama

April 22, 2008 Today 29 members of the North Carolina state legislature endorsed Senator Obama, citing his ability to inspire and bring people together to move our country forward, and put an end to the divisive politics of Washington that have stalled progress on the great challenges facing our nation.

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Obama Set To Announce New Superdelegates After Pennsylvania

Obama strategists said Monday that they expected to announce a series of additional endorsements by uncommitted superdelegates shortly after Pennsylvania votes. A strong showing by Obama in Pennsylvania would give superdelegates more comfort in coming forward, but a bad loss might send them back to the assessment stage.

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The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/24/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama edging ahead of John McCain, 47% to 45%. While that lead is not statistically significant, it is only the second time in the past six weeks that Obama has held any advantage over McCain. Notably, 74% of Democrats say they will support Obama. That’s a five-point improvement for the Illinois Senator compared to last week’s polling. Obama has also gained ground among the unaffiliated. It remains to be seen whether this is a lasting change or merely statistical noise.

McCain continues to enjoy a two-point advantage over Hillary Clinton, 47% to 45%. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily general election results). New state polling from Minnesota provides good news for Democrats while the latest Nevada results are encouraging for the GOP. Minnesota moves from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. Democrats now lead in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

Rhodes Cook takes a look at Obama and Small Town America. Scott Rasmussen suggests that a careful look at the tracking poll data shows potentially hidden support for whichever Democrat wins the nomination. Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 60.0% chance of winning the White House in November.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination little has changed–Obama earns support from 49% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters while Clinton attracts 42% (see recent daily Democratic Nomination results). Both candidates have stable and solid blocks of support from key constituencies in the Democratic Party. These results are based upon a four-day rolling average and include just one night of polling following the Pennsylvania’s Primary. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 81.3% chance of winning the Democratic nomination..

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 45%. Obama’s ratings are 51% favorable and 47% unfavorable. Those ratings are the weakest for McCain since mid-February and the best for Obama in two weeks. For Clinton, the reviews are 44% favorable, 54% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings). The only bad news for Obama in today’s results is that McCain outperforms the Republican brand on a number of key issues. In fact, he is trusted more than Obama when it comes to the economy, national security and Iraq.

A New York Times editorial provides a different sort of challenge for the Democratic hopefuls by saying that higher taxes are needed to “restore the health of the budget.” Friends like that won’t help either Obama or Clinton. Most Americans believe that higher taxes are bad for the economy and 65% oppose raising the capital gains tax. Both Democratic hopefuls have indicated support for raising the capital gains tax even though it would directly impact a majority of the nation’s voters.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/23/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows John McCain with a three-point advantage over Barack Obama, 47% to 44%. McCain attracts support from 82% of Republicans, Obama from 71% of Democrats, and McCain has a very slight edge among unaffiliated voters. The presumptive Republican nominee has a similar advantage over Hillary Clinton, 47% to 44%. In this match-up, McCain is supported by 83% of Republicans, Clinton by 75% of Democrats, and McCain has a double-digit edge among unaffiliated voters. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily general election results).

While McCain has a modest advantage early in the campaign, Scott Rasmussen notes that the fundamentals in 2008 still favor the Democrats. Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 59.8 % chance of winning the White House in November.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination is little changed–Obama earns support from 48% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters while Clinton attracts 43% (see recent daily Democratic Nomination results). These results are based upon a four-day rolling average and virtually all interviews were completed before results from Pennsylvania’s Primary were known. It will be several days before any impact from this vote can be measured. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 82.0 % chance of winning the Democratic nomination..

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 45%. Obama’s ratings are 49% favorable and 49% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 43% favorable, 55% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

Just 15% of Americans say the nation is better off than it was four years ago. Seventy-five percent (75%) disagree. A Rasmussen Reports video analysis looks at how comments from the Democratic candidates about raising the capital gains tax will impact Election 2008.

Polling released over the weekend shows that confidence in the War on Terror has declined slightly over the past month. Forty-five percent (45%) of the nation’s voters believe the U.S. and its allies are winning. Twenty-four percent (24%) believe the terrorists are winning.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/22/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows John McCain with a three-point advantage over Barack Obama 47% to 44%. The presumptive Republican nominee has a six-point advantage over Hillary Clinton, 49% to 43%. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily general election results). While McCain has a modest advantage early in the campaign, Scott Rasmussen notes that the fundamentals in 2008 still favor the Democrats.

New polling released today shows that just 15% of Americans say the nation is better off than it was four years ago. Seventy-five percent (75%) disagree. Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 59.8 % chance of winning the White House in November. A Rasmussen Reports video analysis looks at how comments from the Democratic candidates about raising the capital gains tax will impact Election 2008.

Today, the political world will focus on the Democratic Presidential Primary in Pennsylvania where Clinton leads Obama. Scott Rasmussen discussed the Pennsylvania Primary on WNYW-TV, New York.

Nationally, the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination is little changed–Obama earns support from 49% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters while Clinton attracts 41% (see recent daily Democratic Nomination results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 81.5 % chance of winning the Democratic nomination..

While Obama retains his modest lead in the Democratic race, the data provides fresh evidence of the wounds the party will try to heal before November. Nationwide, among Likely Democratic Primary Voters, just 42% of Obama voters have a favorable opinion of Hillary Clinton. Fifty-five percent (55%) have an unfavorable view.

The reverse is also true—just 40% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. Fifty-six percent (56%) of Clinton fans have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic frontrunner.

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 44%. Obama’s ratings are 49% favorable and 49% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 43% favorable, 55% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings).

Opinions are more firmly established for the Democratic candidates than for McCain. Eighteen percent (18%) have a Very Favorable opinion of the former First Lady while 35% have a Very Unfavorable view. For Obama, those numbers are 25% Very Favorable and 32% Very Unfavorable. By way of contrast, just 18% of voters nationwide have a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. Twenty percent (20%) have a Very Unfavorable opinion.

Polling released over the weekend shows that confidence in the War on Terror has declined slightly over the past month. Forty-five percent (45%) of the nation’s voters believe the U.S. and its allies are winning. Twenty-four percent (24%) believe the terrorists are winning.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.